This study investigates the ex-ante impact of the proposed European Union – Vietnam Free Trade Agreement on Vietnam’s footwear industry using the partial equilibrium model called Software for Market Analysis and Restrictions on Trade. From the 2015 trade and tariff database between EU and Vietnam accessed through the World Integrated Trade Solutions, the authors construct different possible scenarios under three key policies of tariff elimination, rule of origin and trade defense. The results show that the EU’s tariff removal for the Vietnam’s footwear exports would increase Vietnam’s product export value, even under the anti-dumping policy. However, the EU’s trade defense still has a negative impact on Vietnam's most important export footwear group HS Code 6403. The simulation results also indicate that there would be a remarkable shift in the export structure of the groups of products which would enjoy high tariff preference.
2019, Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies
The success of exports in Vietnam has become a driving force for economic growth since the reform in 1986. The paper uses data from 2010 to 2014 to estimate the gravity model for Vietnam’s exports with the random effect estimation. The empirical results show that the bilateral trade of Vietnam is positively associated with the country’s GDP and importing countries’ GDP. Furthermore, it has a negative relationship with distance from Vietnam to trading partners. These results are akin to those of the previous studies of the gravity model. Particularly, foreign direct investment, border effects and exchange rate play a significant role in promoting exports of Vietnam. Besides, the deepened integration into the region and world market also has significant impacts on expanding exports of Vietnam. Therefore, these factors have contributed to explaining the success in exports of Vietnam over the past few years.
2020, Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies
To maintain the Philippines’ competitive edge in the trading of agricultural products, this study identifies factors that significantly influence the Philippines’ participation in the mango global value chain. The study employs a causal research design with panel regression analysis using pooled regression, a fixed effect model and a random effects model and determines the robustness of the models using the Hausman test. The resulting fixed effect model reveals that gross domestic product, remoteness and global competitiveness have a significant positive effect on gross exports and value-added, while being land-locked and bilateral distance have a significant negative effect. Among the identified variables, remoteness has the greatest influence. The resulting model is limited to the analysis of the Philippine mango global chain’s integration in terms of gross exports and value-added contribution to the economy of the country. The underlying factors not included in the model are not given emphasis. This study identifies the factors that correctly estimate the Philippines’ mango global integration. The policy recommendations, if implemented, can guarantee strong integration of Philippine mangoes in the global chain, which will facilitate the flow of factor payments in the economy, thereby raising the standard of living of Philippine citizens and creating more social protection for the Philippine people. Previous studies have been conducted describing the Philippine global value chain integration, but these studies are limited in that they use descriptive analysis and did not identify the factor/s that will improve the mango global value chain’s integration.